The July/August 2004 edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine focuses on business solutions for investigating electricity market economics and includes an 8-page article describing the innovative Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) software developed by Argonne National Laboratory.
EMCAS is designed to meet the growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate how electricity markets may evolve over time and how participants in these markets may react to the changing physical, economic, financial, and regulatory environments in which they operate.
Unlike conventional (time series, regression, and least-cost optimization) models for electric system analysis, the innovative EMCAS software utilizes agent-based modeling (ABM) techniques to represent power markets with multiple and diverse participants, each with its own unique set of business and bidding strategies, and risk preferences. In addition, the software employs a complex adaptive systems (CAS) approach that empowers agents to learn from their previous experiences and change their behavior when future opportunities arise.
With its unique combination of modeling approaches, EMCAS is used to better understand and more accurately model the complex interactions between physical infrastructures (generation, transmission, and distribution) and economic behavior of market participants.
EMCAS is currently being applied for a utility commission in the Midwestern United States, who is interested in understanding how a State will fare under a competitive market environment when full deregulation of the electric sector is implemented.
The EMCAS software provides valuable insights for generation, transmission, and distribution planning and addresses a wide range of strategic issues of interest to electricity market participants and stakeholders, such as:
• Short (daily) and mid-term (annual) price forecasting;
• Resource forecasting and asset valuation;
• Volatility and risk analysis;
• Competitor analysis;
• Market design and development;
• Market monitoring and market power analysis; and
• Transmission congestion analysis. |
